The Relationship Between Time Spent on Social Media and Adolescent Cigarette, E-cigarette, and Dual Use: A Longitudinal Analysis of the UK Millennium Cohort Study.

INTRODUCTION: To estimate the effect of social media use in 14 year olds on risk of and inequalities in cigarette, e-cigarette, and dual use at 17 years, using the UK-representative Millennium Cohort Study (born 2000-2002). AIMS AND METHODS: The relationship of time spent on social media (using questionnaires [n = 8987] and time-use-diaries [n = 2520]) with cigarette, e-cigarette, and dual use was estimated using adjusted odds ratios (AORs) or relative risk ratios (ARRRs). Effect modification was examined (using parental education as an indicator for socioeconomic circumstances) by comparing adjusted risk differences within low and high-parental education groups. Analyses accounted for prespecified confounders (identified via directed acyclic graphs), baseline outcome measures (to address reverse causality), sample design, attrition, and item-missingness (through multiple imputation). RESULTS: Time spent on social media was associated with increased risk of cigarette, e-cigarette, and dual use in a dose-response manner. Social media use for ≥2 hours/day (vs. 1-<30 minutes) was associated with increased cigarette (AOR 2.76 [95% confidence interval 2.19 to 3.48]), e-cigarette (3.24 [2.59 to 4.05]), and dual use (ARRR 4.11 [2.77 to 6.08]). The risk of cigarette use among 30 minutes-<1 hour/day users (vs. non-users) were smaller in those with high versus low parental education (ARDs 1.4% vs. 12.4%). Similar findings were observed across the higher time categories. Analyses using time-use-diaries, in complete case samples, and with additional adjustment for baseline outcome measures generally revealed similar findings. CONCLUSIONS: After accounting for observed confounders and potential reverse causality, findings suggest social media use increases the risk of cigarette, e-cigarette, and dual use in a dose-response manner. Guidance addressing adolescent online safety should be prioritized. IMPLICATIONS: This study's identification of a dose-response relationship and differential effects across socioeconomic groups, could assist in the development of guidance on time spent on social media. The adverse effects of social media use on adolescent cigarette, e-cigarette, and dual use supports legislation aimed at promoting adolescent online safety. Study findings strengthen calls to prohibit social media marketing of nicotine-related products and importantly highlight the need to increase awareness and understanding of the underlying algorithms which drive adolescent exposure to nicotine-related content on social media to ensure they are functioning in a way that best serves the adolescent population.

Social media use and health risk behaviours in young people: systematic review and meta-analysis.

OBJECTIVES: To examine the association between social media use and health risk behaviours in adolescents (defined as those 10-19 years). DESIGN: Systematic review and meta-analysis. DATA SOURCES: EMBASE, Medline, APA PsycINFO, SocINDEX, CINAHL, SSRN, SocArXic, PsyArXiv, medRxiv, and Google Scholar (1 January 1997 to 6 June 2022). METHODS: Health risk behaviours were defined as use of alcohol, drugs, tobacco, electronic nicotine delivery systems, unhealthy dietary behaviour, inadequate physical activity, gambling, and anti-social, sexual risk, and multiple risk behaviours. Included studies reported a social media variable (ie, time spent, frequency of use, exposure to health risk behaviour content, or other social media activities) and one or more relevant outcomes. Screening and risk of bias assessments were completed independently by two reviewers. Synthesis without meta-analysis based on effect direction and random-effects meta-analyses was used. Effect modification was explored using meta-regression and stratification. Certainty of evidence was assessed using GRADE (Grading of Recommendations, Assessment, Development and Evaluations). RESULTS: Of 17 077 studies screened, 126 were included (73 included in meta-analyses). The final sample included 1 431 534 adolescents (mean age 15.0 years). Synthesis without meta-analysis indicated harmful associations between social media and all health risk behaviours in most included studies, except inadequate physical activity where beneficial associations were reported in 63.6% of studies. Frequent (v infrequent) social media use was associated with increased alcohol consumption (odds ratio 1.48 (95% confidence interval 1.35 to 1.62); n=383 068), drug use (1.28 (1.05 to 1.56); n=117 646), tobacco use (1.85, 1.49 to 2.30; n=424 326), sexual risk behaviours (1.77 (1.48 to 2.12); n=47 280), anti-social behaviour (1.73 (1.44 to 2.06); n=54 993), multiple risk behaviours (1.75 (1.30 to 2.35); n=43 571), and gambling (2.84 (2.04 to 3.97); n=26 537). Exposure to content showcasing health risk behaviours on social media (v no exposure) was associated with increased odds of use of electronic nicotine delivery systems (1.73 (1.34 to 2.23); n=721 322), unhealthy dietary behaviours (2.48 (2.08 to 2.97); n=9892), and alcohol consumption (2.43 (1.25 to 4.71); n=14 731). For alcohol consumption, stronger associations were identified for exposure to user generated content (3.21 (2.37 to 4.33)) versus marketer generated content (2.12 (1.06 to 4.24)). For time spent on social media, use for at least 2 h per day (v <2 h) increased odds of alcohol consumption (2.12 (1.53 to 2.95); n=12 390). GRADE certainty was moderate for unhealthy dietary behaviour, low for alcohol use, and very low for other investigated outcomes. CONCLUSIONS: Social media use is associated with adverse health risk behaviours in young people, but further high quality research is needed to establish causality, understand effects on health inequalities, and determine which aspects of social media are most harmful. STUDY REGISTRATION: PROSPERO, CRD42020179766.

Development processes for e-cigarette public health recommendations lacked transparency in managing conflicts of interest.

OBJECTIVES: To investigate how guideline development groups collect and manage conflicts of interest (COI) when producing electronic cigarette (e-cigarette) recommendations. STUDY DESIGN AND SETTING: Public health bodies that had produced e-cigarette recommendations were identified from four purposively selected jurisdictions (World Health Organization, United Kingdom, Australia, and United States). We analysed their COI policies and conducted 15 interviews with guideline methodologists, policymakers, and academics in guideline development groups. RESULTS: Only five of 10 public health bodies had a publicly available COI policy. Participants discussed the importance of those involved in the development process declaring COI. However, there were differences in who had to report COI, the time period asked about, and what and how declarations are made. COI policies and participants discussed a range of approaches for managing COI, from limiting involvement to disqualification from the recommendation development process. Participants considered the current processes for collecting and managing COI insufficient due to their open interpretation and possibility for partial declarations of interest. CONCLUSION: The management of COI varies across public health bodies, with little standardization and lack of transparency. To improve the collection and management of COI, and ultimately increase the trustworthiness of recommendations, guideline development groups should draw upon a comprehensive and accessible COI policy.

Association and pathways between shift work and cardiovascular disease: a prospective cohort study of 238 661 participants from UK Biobank.

BACKGROUND: This study aimed to study the association between shift work and incident and fatal cardiovascular disease (CVD), and to explore modifying and mediating factors. METHODS: This is a population-based, prospective cohort study with a median follow-up of 11 years; 238 661 UK Biobank participants who were in paid employment or self-employed at baseline assessment were included. RESULTS: Shift workers had higher risk of incident [hazard ratio (HR) 1.11, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.06-1.19] and fatal (HR 1.25, 95% CI 1.08-1.44) CVD compared with non-shift workers, after adjusting for socio-economic and work-related factors. The risk was higher with longer duration of shift work, in women and in jobs with little heavy manual labour. Current smoking, short sleep duration, poor sleep quality, adiposity, higher glycated haemoglobin and higher cystatin C were identified as the main potentially modifiable mediators. Mediators collectively explained 52.3% of the associations between shift work and incident CVDs. CONCLUSIONS: Shift workers have higher risk of incident and fatal CVD, partly mediated through modifiable risk factors such as smoking, sleep duration and quality, adiposity and metabolic status. Workplace interventions targeting these mediators have the potential to alleviate shift workers' CVD risk.

Derivation and Validation of a 10-Year Risk Score for Symptomatic Abdominal Aortic Aneurysm: Cohort Study of Nearly 500 000 Individuals.

BACKGROUND: Abdominal aortic aneurysm (AAA) can occur in patients who are ineligible for routine ultrasound screening. A simple AAA risk score was derived and compared with current guidelines used for ultrasound screening of AAA. METHODS: United Kingdom Biobank participants without previous AAA were split into a derivation cohort (n=401 820, 54.6% women, mean age 56.4 years, 95.5% White race) and validation cohort (n=83 816). Incident AAA was defined as first hospital inpatient diagnosis of AAA, death from AAA, or an AAA-related surgical procedure. A multivariable Cox model was developed in the derivation cohort into an AAA risk score that did not require blood biomarkers. To illustrate the sensitivity and specificity of the risk score for AAA, a theoretical threshold to refer patients for ultrasound at 0.25% 10-year risk was modeled. Discrimination of the risk score was compared with a model of US Preventive Services Task Force (USPSTF) AAA screening guidelines. RESULTS: In the derivation cohort, there were 1570 (0.40%) cases of AAA over a median 11.3 years of follow-up. Components of the AAA risk score were age (stratified by smoking status), weight (stratified by smoking status), antihypertensive and cholesterol-lowering medication use, height, diastolic blood pressure, baseline cardiovascular disease, and diabetes. In the validation cohort, over 10 years of follow-up, the C-index for the model of the USPSTF guidelines was 0.705 (95% CI, 0.678-0.733). The C-index of the risk score as a continuous variable was 0.856 (95% CI, 0.837-0.878). In the validation cohort, the USPSTF model yielded sensitivity 63.9% and specificity 71.3%. At the 0.25% 10-year risk threshold, the risk score yielded sensitivity 82.1% and specificity 70.7% while also improving the net reclassification index compared with the USPSTF model +0.176 (95% CI, 0.120-0.232). A combined model, whereby risk scoring was combined with the USPSTF model, also improved prediction compared with USPSTF alone (net reclassification index +0.101 [95% CI, 0.055-0.147]). CONCLUSIONS: In an asymptomatic general population, a risk score based on patient age, height, weight, and medical history may improve identification of asymptomatic patients at risk for clinical events from AAA. Further development and validation of risk scores to detect asymptomatic AAA are needed.

Modifiable and non-modifiable risk factors for COVID-19, and comparison to risk factors for influenza and pneumonia: results from a UK Biobank prospective cohort study.

OBJECTIVES: We aimed to investigate demographic, lifestyle, socioeconomic and clinical risk factors for COVID-19, and compared them to risk factors for pneumonia and influenza in UK Biobank. DESIGN: Cohort study. SETTING: UK Biobank. PARTICIPANTS: 49-83 year olds (in 2020) from a general population study. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Confirmed COVID-19 infection (positive SARS-CoV-2 test). Incident influenza and pneumonia were obtained from primary care data. Poisson regression was used to study the association of exposure variables with outcomes. RESULTS: Among 235 928 participants, 397 had confirmed COVID-19. After multivariable adjustment, modifiable risk factors were higher body mass index and higher glycated haemoglobin (HbA1C) (RR 1.28 and RR 1.14 per SD increase, respectively), smoking (RR 1.39), slow walking pace as a proxy for physical fitness (RR 1.53), and use of blood pressure medications as a proxy for hypertension (RR 1.33). Higher forced expiratory volume in 1 s (FEV1) and high-density lipoprotein (HDL) cholesterol were both associated with lower risk (RR 0.84 and RR 0.83 per SD increase, respectively). Non-modifiable risk factors included male sex (RR 1.72), black ethnicity (RR 2.00), socioeconomic deprivation (RR 1.17 per SD increase in Townsend Index), and high cystatin C (RR 1.13 per SD increase). The risk factors overlapped with pneumonia somewhat, less so for influenza. The associations with modifiable risk factors were generally stronger for COVID-19, than pneumonia or influenza. CONCLUSION: These findings suggest that modification of lifestyle may help to reduce the risk of COVID-19 and could be a useful adjunct to other interventions, such as social distancing and shielding of high risk.

Following in the footsteps of tobacco and alcohol? Stakeholder discourse in UK newspaper coverage of the Soft Drinks Industry Levy.

OBJECTIVE: In politically contested health debates, stakeholders on both sides present arguments and evidence to influence public opinion and the political agenda. The present study aimed to examine whether stakeholders in the Soft Drinks Industry Levy (SDIL) debate sought to establish or undermine the acceptability of this policy through the news media and how this compared with similar policy debates in relation to tobacco and alcohol industries. DESIGN: Quantitative and qualitative content analysis of newspaper articles discussing sugar-sweetened beverage (SSB) taxation published in eleven UK newspapers between 1 April 2015 and 30 November 2016, identified through the Nexis database. Direct stakeholder citations were entered in NVivo to allow inductive thematic analysis and comparison with an established typology of industry stakeholder arguments used by the alcohol and tobacco industries. SETTING: UK newspapers. PARTICIPANTS: Proponents and opponents of SSB tax/SDIL cited in UK newspapers. RESULTS: Four hundred and ninety-one newspaper articles cited stakeholders' (n 287) arguments in relation to SSB taxation (n 1761: 65 % supportive and 35 % opposing). Stakeholders' positions broadly reflected their vested interests. Inconsistencies arose from: changes in ideological position; insufficient clarity on the nature of the problem to be solved; policy priorities; and consistency with academic rigour. Both opposing and supportive themes were comparable with the alcohol and tobacco industry typology. CONCLUSIONS: Public health advocates were particularly prominent in the UK newspaper debate surrounding the SDIL. Advocates in future policy debates might benefit from seeking a similar level of prominence and avoiding inconsistencies by being clearer about the policy objective and mechanisms.

The palatability of sugar-sweetened beverage taxation: A content analysis of newspaper coverage of the UK sugar debate.

BACKGROUND: Excess sugar consumption, including sugar-sweetened beverages (SSBs), contributes to a variety of negative health outcomes, particularly for young people. The mass media play a powerful role in influencing public and policy-makers' perceptions of public health issues and their solutions. We analysed how sugar and SSB policy debates were presented in UK newspapers at a time of heightened awareness and following the announcement of the UK Government's soft drinks industry levy (SDIL), to inform future public health advocacy. METHODS & FINDINGS: We carried out quantitative content analysis of articles discussing the issues of sugar and SSB consumption published in 11 national newspapers from April 2015 to November 2016. 684 newspaper articles were analysed using a structured coding frame. Coverage peaked in line with evidence publication, campaigner activities and policy events. Articles predominantly supportive of SSB taxation (23.5%) outnumbered those that were predominantly oppositional (14.2%). However, oppositional articles outnumbered supportive ones in the month of the announcement of the SDIL. Sugar and SSB consumption were presented as health risks, particularly affecting young people, with the actions of industry often identified as the cause of the public health problem. Responsibility for addressing sugar overconsumption was primarily assigned to government intervention. CONCLUSION: Our results suggest that the policy landscape favouring fiscal solutions to curb sugar and SSB consumption has benefited from media coverage characterising the issue as an industry-driven problem. Media coverage may drive greater public acceptance of the SDIL and any future taxation of products containing sugar. However, future advocacy efforts should note the surge in opposition coinciding with the announcement of the SDIL, which echoes similar patterns of opposition observed in tobacco control debates.

Mortality, ethnicity, and country of birth on a national scale, 2001-2013: A retrospective cohort (Scottish Health and Ethnicity Linkage Study).

BACKGROUND: Migrant and ethnic minority groups are often assumed to have poor health relative to the majority population. Few countries have the capacity to study a key indicator, mortality, by ethnicity and country of birth. We hypothesized at least 10% differences in mortality by ethnic group in Scotland that would not be wholly attenuated by adjustment for socio-economic factors or country of birth. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We linked the Scottish 2001 Census to mortality data (2001-2013) in 4.62 million people (91% of estimated population), calculating age-adjusted mortality rate ratios (RRs; multiplied by 100 as percentages) with 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for 13 ethnic groups, with the White Scottish group as reference (ethnic group classification follows the Scottish 2001 Census). The Scottish Index of Multiple Deprivation, education status, and household tenure were socio-economic status (SES) confounding variables and born in the UK or Republic of Ireland (UK/RoI) an interacting and confounding variable. Smoking and diabetes data were from a primary care sub-sample (about 53,000 people). Males and females in most minority groups had lower age-adjusted mortality RRs than the White Scottish group. The 95% CIs provided good evidence that the RR was more than 10% lower in the following ethnic groups: Other White British (72.3 [95% CI 64.2, 81.3] in males and 75.2 [68.0, 83.2] in females); Other White (80.8 [72.8, 89.8] in males and 76.2 [68.6, 84.7] in females); Indian (62.6 [51.6, 76.0] in males and 60.7 [50.4, 73.1] in females); Pakistani (66.1 [57.4, 76.2] in males and 73.8 [63.7, 85.5] in females); Bangladeshi males (50.7 [32.5, 79.1]); Caribbean females (57.5 [38.5, 85.9]); and Chinese (52.2 [43.7, 62.5] in males and 65.8 [55.3, 78.2] in females). The differences were diminished but not eliminated after adjusting for UK/RoI birth and SES variables. A mortality advantage was evident in all 12 minority groups for those born abroad, but in only 6/12 male groups and 5/12 female groups of those born in the UK/RoI. In the primary care sub-sample, after adjustment for age, UK/RoI born, SES, smoking, and diabetes, the RR was not lower in Indian males (114.7 [95% CI 78.3, 167.9]) and Pakistani females (103.9 [73.9, 145.9]) than in White Scottish males and females, respectively. The main limitations were the inability to include deaths abroad and the small number of deaths in some ethnic minority groups, especially for people born in the UK/RoI. CONCLUSIONS: There was relatively low mortality for many ethnic minority groups compared to the White Scottish majority. The mortality advantage was less clear in UK/RoI-born minority group offspring than in immigrants. These differences need explaining, and health-related behaviours seem important. Similar analyses are required internationally to fulfil agreed goals for monitoring, understanding, and improving health in ethnically diverse societies and to apply to health policy, especially on health inequalities and inequities.